Brentford FC: A team destined for the Premier League

On August 4th, 2020, Brentford were beaten 2-1 in extra time by two late goals from Joe Bryan in a game that comprised of very few clear chances. This would bring a tragic end to what was otherwise an unprecedented season that would see them rise all the way to third in a tightly contested EFL Championship.

For Brentford to finish in the top three would probably have surprised many, but not those who have closely followed their astonishing rise from being an average team in League One to coming within touching distance of participating in the most lucrative league in world football. Brentford FC, a lesser-known club in London, have struggled in the lower tiers of English Football for much of their history. However, they have risen to prominence in recent years due to their unorthodox use of data analysis and mathematical models chiefly based on the Expected Goals model to identify bargains in the transfer market and eventually sell them for a profit. This modus operandi started in 2014, two years after Matthew Benham bought the club, and the positive influence is clear to see over half a decade later.

[https://www.transfermarkt.us/fc-brentford/platzierungen/verein/1148]

The use of Expected Goals has definitely gained some mainstream popularity but there are still many who are confused on what exactly this stat means. Expected Goals (xG) simply tells us the quality and quantity of chances one team or player produces in any given match. Each shot is assigned an xG out of one based on the probability of said shot ending up in the net (A shot that has a 45% of being a goal has an xG value of 0.45). To calculate the probability of a shot being a goal, a variety of factors are taken into account: the distance from the goal, the angle from where the shot is taken, whether the shot is taken on the ground or in the air, whether the player is shooting with his or her weaker foot and the amount of defenders between the shot and the goal are some of the factors that could be measured when calculating xG. To give each shot a value, data experts have looked at hundreds of thousands of shots from all sorts of scenarios to calculate the likelihood of a goal being scored. It is important to mention that there is not a single universal model of Expected Goals so different clubs or firms may come up with different values of xG for a certain game based on what they factor in to their model. While the specifics of Brentford's xG model haven't been made public, it's clear to see that it has proven to be useful.

The Bees have consistently shown their scouting prowess in the transfer market by consistently identifying hidden gems who have uncharacteristically high xG values in the lesser known leagues. They then sell them for profits that would prove to be massive for a club that hasn't been in the Premier League since 2001. The likes of Neal Maupay (Signed €2.0m for and sold for €22.22m), Ollie Watkins (Signed for €2.0m and sold for €30.80m) and Saïd Benrahma (Signed for €1.70m and sold for €23.10m) are some of the players that have accentuated the viability of their strategy over the years.

Brentford's transfer policy also clearly takes into the account the concept of regression to the mean, where players who have a fantastic season or conversely a horrid one tend to follow up those performances with showings more synonymous with earlier parts of their career. For example, the scouts anticipated that Andre Gray's stock was reaching its peak and he would have less impressive returns in future seasons, so they sold him to Burnley for what would be a club-record fee for the clarets.

Off the field, a data revolution is also taking place at Brentford as they have an interesting way of handling the non-playing staff. Traditionally in most clubs, the head coach has the final say on all the major decisions pertaining to tactics, transfers and many other important aspects of footballing operations. This is not the case at Brentford as Benham has placed a substantial amount of power in the hands of the Directors of Football and the Data Analysts. The Directors of Football handle player recruitment alongside a team of analysts as well and they also handle contract negotiations. The head coach's job is to manage the playing staff and develop tactics. Even during the game, the manager is equipped with a group of analysts that offer advice on substitutions and tactics based on key performance indicators. This democratic, data-driven system that Brentford has chosen to employ allows the club to function properly as individual biases are suppressed by the power of the collective since no one man dictates everything. By increasing the sample size of knowledge garnered from research and experience, the important people will be able to make more informed decisions about which direction the club should go in.

As pioneers of data in football, Brentford have faced a lot of backlash from the media for their unusual methods. However, the doubters have become less vocal in recent years as the results are hard to argue against. With sports like baseball, basketball and american football having long since embraced the use of data analytics in their respective sports, there has been a question of if soccer would follow suit and become heavily numbers-based. Over the past few years, it’s safe to say that Brentford have proven that there is a future for data analytics in the beautiful game. They are not alone as the likes of FC Midtjylland, Liverpool, Arsenal and Barcelona are also leading the way for the data revolution to continue on multiple fronts. The loss to Fulham may have been a painful pill to swallow, but if their trajectory over the past decade is anything to go by, Brentford's fate lies in the Premier League and that destiny will come to pass sooner rather than later.